Updates: Week Ending Feb 28, 2025

CMC Markets continues to be my broker of choice. In Canada, FX and CFDs brokers are still limited, and FTMO's acquisition of Oanda is only making options scarcer. For the longest time, my preference for CMC Markets is because of the Canadian bill payment deposit option.

However, there will be one more reason soon. CMC Markets is in the process of integrating with Tradingview. This integration is currently in beta, and I'm really hoping that it goes live soon.

In terms of key highlights, last week was very productive for me. Although I ended the week with a small loss, it was a helpful realization that I need to tighten my entry criteria going forward.

Trade Recap

USD/CHF

The first trade to highlight was on the USD/CHF currency pair. Here is the daily chart below.

USD/CHF Daily

The uptrend on USD/CHF started in September 2024 and reached a high in January 2025. Since then, this pair struggled to make a new high on the daily timeframe. As a result, I began looking at a trend-line break to go short.

Price crossed below the horizontal level and resumed above it three days later. After price crossed below the horizontal level again, this was my indication to enter a short position.

USD/CHF 1-Hour

I'm glad that I've been disciplined in keeping my entry level consistent. On the 1-hour timeframe, I identified a micro-range and then entered short when price broke below this lower range boundary.

AUD/JPY

Unlike the USD/CHF pair, I took a trend-following setup on the AUD/JPY pair. This pair has been in a downtrend since November 2024.

AUD/JPY Daily

It's a weak downtrend for two reasons based on my analysis rules:

1. EMA-20 is below the EMA-60, which indicates that we're classifying this as a downtrend
2. Price isn't forming clean lower low Darvas range boxes so the signal quality is considered "weak"

That being said, there was still an opportunity to enter a short position.

AUD/JPY 1-Hour

As you can see, in hindsight, I captured a small chunk of the overall trend movement.

NZD/JPY

My trade on the NZD/JPY pair played out in a similar fashion like the AUD/JPY trade.

NZD/JPY Daily

As you can see, the price action on the NZD/JPY pair was very similar to the AUD/JPY pair.

NZD/JPY 1-Hour

Even on the 1-hour timeframe, the price mirrored each other nearly 1:1. These winning trades indicate that I have an opportunity to further capitalize on scaling in when a trend forms. It also indicates that I should avoid taking trades on pairs with poor signal quality.

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF Daily

I took a loss on the EUR/CHF pair, and it was a rather stupid trade. Although price crossed below the neckline that I had plotted, the EMA-20 was (and still is) above the EMA-60. 

The price relative to the two exponential moving averages indicates that the directional strength isn't clear. It also means that I shouldn't have considered trading this pair at all.

EUR/CHF 1-Hour

On the 1-hour timeframe, price quickly went against me after my sell stop got triggered. The lesson here is to avoid these very marginal situations. By doing so, I would've ended the week with a net positive P&L.

Pairs-in-Play (PiP)

For the week ahead, I'll be watching several key pairs - AUD/SGD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and GBP/NZD.

AUD/SGD

AUD/SGD Daily

This pair is in a downtrend, which is indicated by the EMA-20 hovering below the EMA-60. At last week's close, it breached below a key level so I will be monitoring if momentum picks up at next week's open.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP Daily

This isn't the cleanest downtrend, but I think there's potential. Since my take profit per trade is set at 0.5x ATR, it's highly probable to capture a small move if momentum picks up.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily

Likewise, this trend isn't super clean either. It seems EUR/USD attempted to reverse but that is short-lived. If this pair does resume its downtrend, I think there's a good opportunity to ride the momentum.

GBP/NZD

GBP/NZD Daily

I actually took a long position in this pair last week and captured a small move. Unfortunately, I missed the opportunity to further scale into this pair.

Now that price is attempting to breach above a new daily high, the opportunity for a stronger trend to form is highly probable. If this does, then I will look to capitalize on this momentum.